EXTERME WEATHER

EXTERME WEATHER

Frequent reports of record-breaking events suggest that climate extremes are becoming more common. There is no scientific evidence however, that this is the case at the global level. Through the there does not appear to be any discernible trend in extreme weather events. In addition, given the large in climate and the general rarity of climatic extremes it is hard to determine whether they are now occurring as a result of global warming.

 A more likely explanation is that increased human vulnerability to climate extremes, particularly in developing countries, is transforming extreme events into climatic disasters. The communications revolution has also made people much more aware of the occurrence of extreme events and of their impact. What can be said with certainty however, is that any change in climate will affect society much more through extreme weather events rather than subtle changes in climate averages.

Any shift in average climate will almost inevitably result in a change in the frequency of extreme events. In general, more heat waves and fewer frosts could be expected as the average rises, whilst the return period of severe flooding will be reduced substantially if precipitation increases. A 1 in a 100 year event for example, may become a 1 in 10 year event, whilst 1 in a 10 year event may become a 1 in 3 year event. For less adaptable societies in the developing world a shorter return period of extreme weather events may not allow them to fully recover from the effects of one event before the next event strikes