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Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Are Human Activities Contributing to Climate Change?

 Are  Human  Activities  Contributing  to  Climate  Change?

Natural changes in climate result from interactions such as those between the atmosphere and ocean, referred to as internal factors, and from external causes, such as variations in the sun's energy output and in the amount of material injected into the upper atmosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions. 

Such investigations usually consist of two parts: detection of an unusual change, and attribution of all or part of that change to a particular cause or causes.  


To attribute the symptom to an underlying cause often requires additional and more complex tests, such as chemical analyses of blood and urine, or even x-rays and CAT scans. Early work on climate-change detection examined changes in the globally averaged surface temperature of the Earth over the last century. Most studies of this type concluded that the observed increase of roughly 0.5°C (about 1°F) was larger than would be expected as a result of natural climate variability alone

The further step of attributing some part of observed temperature changes to human influences makes use of climate models, which have been employed to estimate the climatic effects of a range of human-induced and natural factors. The human factors include recent changes in the atmospheric concentrations of both greenhouse gases and sulfate particles (called "aerosols"). The natural factors considered include solar variability, the effects of volcanic eruptions, and internal variability of the climate system resulting from interactions among its individual components.

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