Abrupt climate change

Abrupt climate change

Defined as a large-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems (CUSP, 2008a).There is the possibility of a rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, and hence sea level. Predictions of such a change are highly uncertain due to a lack of scientific understanding. Modeling of the processes associated with a rapid ice sheet and glacier change could potentially increase future projections of sea level rise.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth's climate system, characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of colder water in the deep Atlantic (CCSP, 2008b, p. 5)Potential impacts associated with MOC changes include reduced warming or (in the case of abrupt change) absolute cooling of northern high-latitude areas near Greenland and north-western Europe, an increased warming of Southern Hemisphere high-latitudes, tropical drying, as well as changes to marine ecosystems, terrestrial vegetation, oceanic CO₂et al., 2007) uptake, oceanic oxygen concentrations, and shifts in fisheries (Schneider

According to a assessment by the US  (CCSP, 2008b, p. 5), it is very likely that the strength of the AMOC will decrease over the course of the 21^st century. Warming is still expected to occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in response to increasing greenhouse gases, as well as over North America. Although it is very unlikely that the AMOC will collapse in the 21^st century, the potential consequences of such a collapse could be severe.